Good gravy! Check out this poll, which shows Bobby Schilling leading Phil Hare by a whopping 45-32 margin.

The poll notes:

Phil Hare’s image rating is “upside down,” with 27% of voters having a favorable opinion of him, and 41% having an unfavorable opinion of him.

Among all voters, 27% approve of the job Phil Hare is doing and 43% disapprove.

Among all voters, only 24% responded they would reelect Phil Hare, 50% think it is time to give someone else a chance to do a better job and 26% are undecided on the question.

“If the election for Congress was being held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were Bobby Schilling, Republican, or Phil Hare, Democrat?” Among all voters, Bobby Schilling leads Phil Hare, 45% to 32%, and 23% are undecided. The bulk of Bobby Schilling’s support is being driven by male voters. Among men, Bobby Schilling leads Phil Hare by 28 points, 54% to 26%. Among women, it is a much closer race, with Bobby Schilling leading by 1 point, 37% to 36%, and 27% are undecided.

“Friends of Phil Hare” political director Maggie Depoorter furiously spins:

“This poll isn’t worth the paper it was printed on. It’s a Republican automated poll—plain and simple. It is no surprise that Mr. Schilling is trying to create the illusion that he is winning this race, but a 13-point lead doesn’t even pass the laugh test. The fact that this partisan poll was released just as the independent Gallup organization shows Democratic candidates for Congress ahead by six points nationwide makes it even more ridiculous.  As everyone knows, the only poll that matters is the one on Election Day and Congressman Hare intends to win that one comfortably.”

Funny that right before she says that “the only poll that matters is the one on Election Day,” Ms. Depoorter cites another poll.  (“Polls are stupid – and the one we prefer, shows us in the lead, so there!”) As for her assertion that Schilling’s “13-point lead doesn’t even pass the laugh test,” I am reminded that even before the health care debacle became law solely with Democrat votes, other smart people were noticing that many Illinois Democrats were running well behind what would historically be expected.

Back then — before the health care crap sandwich, before the oil spill, before the “it’s not a tax, oh yes it is a tax” health care mandate, before the Illinois unemployment rate remained stuck in double digits, Phil Hare was only leading Schilling by 7%. 

Schilling’s camp responded to Depoorter’s whistling past the graveyard thusly:

“With the unemployment rate having doubled, the national debt having risen by over $5 trillion and more taxes being pushed on to the middle class, it’s no wonder why the Hare campaign seems so testy and defensive. Maybe they should release their own internals showing otherwise. This isn’t the best year to be an unapologetic tax and spender.”

That’s hilarious – by the way, where are Hare’s internal polls?  According to this poll, His Phatness sports a 27/41 favorable/unfavorable rating.  And by a margin of 52/9, his constituents think “the economy and jobs” are more important an issue that “health care.”  As Jim Geraghty noted a few months back:

Then there’s the matter of those polls conducted by Hare’s campaign but never released. What could they have shown? How good could they possibly have been for Hare if he’s decided to keep them under wraps, even after needling from GOP challenger Bobby Schilling? 55–45? If it were, say, 57–43, wouldn’t Hare have released them to show he’s still in fine shape?

Late last year, a poll found only 40 percent inclined to reelect Hare; in March, another poll found Hare leading Schilling 39 percent to 32 percent, a not-quite-so-daunting margin.

Even if the 13% margin is not solid, one thing is clear:  “This isn’t the best year to be an unapologetic tax and spender.”

Hat tip:  QC Examiner