Hare Today, Gone Tomorrow

So James L. Moody, the Chairman of the Sangamon County Democratic Party, has filed a complaint with the Federal Elections Committee, sniveling about the fact that Veterans For the Constitution don’t support his buddy, His Phatness.

In footnote 9 of the complaint, Mr. Moody cites this post from QC Examiner.  Proof that, to the extent they can read, Hare’s supporters are following QCExaminer’s yeoman’s work!!  Congrats!!!

As evidenced by this petty filing of the FEC complaint, methinks His Phatness is getting worried…  Every day, it’s looking more and more like we’re gonna have a Bald Congress!

Just over a month ago, Maggie Depoorter laughed off a poll showing Bobby Schilling leading His Phatness by 13 points by saying 

a 13-point lead doesn’t even pass the laugh test. The fact that this partisan poll was released just as the independent Gallup organization shows Democratic candidates for Congress ahead by six points nationwide makes it even more ridiculous. 

Well, I wonder what Ms. Depoorter will say now, when the same independent organization finds its largest lead ever for Republicans?  As stated by Gallup:

Republicans lead by 51% to 41% among registered voters in Gallup weekly tracking of 2010 congressional voting preferences. The 10-percentage-point lead is the GOP’s largest so far this year and is its largest in Gallup’s history of tracking the midterm generic ballot for Congress.

In addition, the same independent organization finds that:

Republicans are now twice as likely as Democrats to be “very” enthusiastic about voting, and now hold — by one point — the largest such advantage of the year.

Not so ridiculous any more, is it Ms. Depoorter?  I would not be surprised to see Schilling beat Hare by 13 points.

From The Hill:

Much like the surprising loss of Rep. Sue Kelly (R-N.Y.) in 2006, a district like Hare’s could be the tipping point between solid Republican gains in 2010 and a crushing GOP wave that wipes out the Democratic majority.

Hare is going down, brother.  Can’t you just feel it?

Hat tip:  QC Examiner

So says the latest poll, apparently commissioned by the Schilling camp.  Has Bobby within 2 points.

Good gravy! Check out this poll, which shows Bobby Schilling leading Phil Hare by a whopping 45-32 margin.

The poll notes:

Phil Hare’s image rating is “upside down,” with 27% of voters having a favorable opinion of him, and 41% having an unfavorable opinion of him.

Among all voters, 27% approve of the job Phil Hare is doing and 43% disapprove.

Among all voters, only 24% responded they would reelect Phil Hare, 50% think it is time to give someone else a chance to do a better job and 26% are undecided on the question.

“If the election for Congress was being held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were Bobby Schilling, Republican, or Phil Hare, Democrat?” Among all voters, Bobby Schilling leads Phil Hare, 45% to 32%, and 23% are undecided. The bulk of Bobby Schilling’s support is being driven by male voters. Among men, Bobby Schilling leads Phil Hare by 28 points, 54% to 26%. Among women, it is a much closer race, with Bobby Schilling leading by 1 point, 37% to 36%, and 27% are undecided.

“Friends of Phil Hare” political director Maggie Depoorter furiously spins:

“This poll isn’t worth the paper it was printed on. It’s a Republican automated poll—plain and simple. It is no surprise that Mr. Schilling is trying to create the illusion that he is winning this race, but a 13-point lead doesn’t even pass the laugh test. The fact that this partisan poll was released just as the independent Gallup organization shows Democratic candidates for Congress ahead by six points nationwide makes it even more ridiculous.  As everyone knows, the only poll that matters is the one on Election Day and Congressman Hare intends to win that one comfortably.”

Funny that right before she says that “the only poll that matters is the one on Election Day,” Ms. Depoorter cites another poll.  (“Polls are stupid – and the one we prefer, shows us in the lead, so there!”) As for her assertion that Schilling’s “13-point lead doesn’t even pass the laugh test,” I am reminded that even before the health care debacle became law solely with Democrat votes, other smart people were noticing that many Illinois Democrats were running well behind what would historically be expected.

Back then — before the health care crap sandwich, before the oil spill, before the “it’s not a tax, oh yes it is a tax” health care mandate, before the Illinois unemployment rate remained stuck in double digits, Phil Hare was only leading Schilling by 7%. 

Schilling’s camp responded to Depoorter’s whistling past the graveyard thusly:

“With the unemployment rate having doubled, the national debt having risen by over $5 trillion and more taxes being pushed on to the middle class, it’s no wonder why the Hare campaign seems so testy and defensive. Maybe they should release their own internals showing otherwise. This isn’t the best year to be an unapologetic tax and spender.”

That’s hilarious – by the way, where are Hare’s internal polls?  According to this poll, His Phatness sports a 27/41 favorable/unfavorable rating.  And by a margin of 52/9, his constituents think “the economy and jobs” are more important an issue that “health care.”  As Jim Geraghty noted a few months back:

Then there’s the matter of those polls conducted by Hare’s campaign but never released. What could they have shown? How good could they possibly have been for Hare if he’s decided to keep them under wraps, even after needling from GOP challenger Bobby Schilling? 55–45? If it were, say, 57–43, wouldn’t Hare have released them to show he’s still in fine shape?

Late last year, a poll found only 40 percent inclined to reelect Hare; in March, another poll found Hare leading Schilling 39 percent to 32 percent, a not-quite-so-daunting margin.

Even if the 13% margin is not solid, one thing is clear:  “This isn’t the best year to be an unapologetic tax and spender.”

Hat tip:  QC Examiner

…from Unions, Lawyers and other congressional clowns.  Phil Hare raised $170,000 in the second quarter.  His campaign trumpets:

…79 percent of Hare’s donors were individuals.
 
“Congressman Hare remains in the driver’s seat when it comes to resources in this race,” said Maggie Depoorter, political director for Friends of Phil Hare. “This 2nd quarter report went above and beyond our greatest expectations, once again demonstrating the enthusiasm for Congressman Hare and his agenda. The fact that so many people contributed, especially in this tough economy, shows that voters support the Congressman’s efforts to invest in the 17th District, create jobs, and hold Wall Street accountable. We expect to have nearly $1 million at our disposal to spread Congressman Hare’s record of accomplishment this fall.”

While his campaign committe acts as if all the money was contributed by individuals, it was not.  Instead, the vast majority of Hare’s money has always been contributed by labor unions, law firms, political action committees and other congressional campaigns.   In this article, Bobby Schilling’s campaign points out “that $120,000 of Hare’s funding came from special interest groups from outside the district, accounting for 2/3 of Hare’s total second quarter fundraising.”

Clicking here shows that almost all of Hare’s donations come directly from the aforementioned groups, most outside of the 17th District, and hardly any individuals.  It also states that Hare had only 187 contributions – wow, what a groundswell!   In fact, I ran a search at opensecrets.org, and it doesn’t appear that even Maggie Depoorter, political director for Friends of Phil Hare, has ever donated $200 or more to Mr. Hare. 

By way of contrast, Schilling raised over $125,000 from individual donors and around $13,000 from political action committees. 

It seems the people support Mr. Schilling, while the entrenched interests who hope to use Mr. Hare as their continued tool to exploit said people for their own gain support His Phatness.

So says Jim Geraghty at National Review.  He compiled a list of 99 House races, and then broke them down by categories of difficulty.  Geraghty lists Hare in the easiest-to-beat category, the first time I’ve seen a prominent figure come out like that on the race.  I agree though, this guy is going to lose.  Just look at him.

Hat tip:  Illinois Review

Check out this post by Mark Hemingway, which notes that Public Policy, a Democrat polling firm, “says things are going to get ugly in November in Big Ten states”:

If the election was today Democrats would likely lose something they currently hold in every state where they have something to lose- Pennsylvania Governor and perhaps Senate, Michigan Governor, Ohio Governor, Indiana Senate, Iowa Governor, Wisconsin Governor and perhaps Senate, and Illinois Senate and/or Governor. Only Minnesota doesn’t join the party because Democrats have nothing to lose there.

What all this really makes me wonder is just how many House seats Democrats are going to lose in the region this year. The smattering of polling we’ve seen has not been very good for the party, but because it’s so limited it’s hard to get a handle on just how bad the situation is. Given the Obama numbers and what we’re seeing in Senate and Gubernatorial polls though I’m guessing it’s not a good picture for Democrats. It’s going to be a very difficult year for the party in this region.

This follows by a day Michael Barone’s post titled “Democratic incumbents running behind in Obama’s home state.”  Barone notes that many Illinois Democrats are polling far behind what would normally be expected, and far behind their districts vote in 2008. 

For example, Hare is only up seven points over Schilling, a virtual unknown running in a district gerrymandered more than any other to be a “safe” Democrat seat:

Finally, in something of a surprise, two-term Democrat Phil Hare leads Republican Bobby Schilling, whom Politics1.com describes as a “Pizza Restaurant Owner and Ex-Factory Worker” by a small margin of 39%-32%. The labyrinthine district takes in the more heavily Democratic areas of northwest and central Illinois, though it is still fairly marginal (D+3). This district is one that many thought would be competitive when Lane Evans retired in 2006, but went heavily for the Democrat in successive Democratic waves.

Hearing the tortoise yet, Mr. Hare?

Two days ago, Phil Hare gave the reasons why he voted for “health care reform,” stating in part:

“I voted for health care reform for one simple reason: it is the right thing to do. It is right for families who will now see their premiums go down. It is right for Americans with preexisting conditions that will now have access to coverage.”

Turns out that the whole access to coverage thing, like almost every other provision of the bill, doesn’t kick in until 2014 (after four years of taxes).  About this, Bobby Schilling stated:

“This is a shame,” said Schilling. “Again the federal government and our representatives have misled us. They made this bill sound as if it would fix all of our problems.  Clearly it does not.  Rep. Hare would have known about this new loophole if he had read the bill.  He should apologize for misleading the people of his district.”

But if Representative Hare were going to apologize for misleading the people of his district, it would probably take more time than the seven months he has left in office.  He does nothing but mislead the people of his district.  As a democrat, it’s his full time job.

UPDATE:  I see QC Examiner beat me to the punch, and with a much better post, too!  Go check it out.  A taste:

Phil Hare touting the wonders of Obamacare:

“Immediately, we’re going to put younger people on their parents’ policies. We’re going to cover young people immediately who have pre-existing conditions . . .”

Too bad it isn’t true.

From last week in the Weekly Standard:

[T]his is exactly the sort of seat that could flip if a powerful anti-incumbent wave gains speed and washes the Democrats out of Congress. And Schilling has a great personal story. He and his wife of 24 years have a Duggar-like 10 children, ranging in age from 23-years- to 1-month-old. He owns a popular Italian restaurant, Saint Giuseppe’s Heavenly Pizza in Moline. (Try the Jalapeno Garden Pizza.) Illinois Republican star Aaron Schock will campaign for him in the coming months. Schilling’s a fresh face in a time of popular ferment. And Rep. Hare is in his sights. “This guy got a free pass last time,” Schilling says. Not in 2010.

I disagree – Hare is gonna get a free pass this time.  Right out of DC.